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The win completely changed his relationship with gambling. In Madsen’s words: “That jackpot was really the beginning of my gambling addiction.” It was an addiction that was propelled by a constant exposure to illegal sites, he explains.
The cycle eventually became extreme.
“At one point, I had only a few thousand euros left to gamble with, but then I won €180,000 in a single day. The next day I lost it all again,” he says.
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The biggest new uncertainty in US sports betting is prediction markets. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion in betting handle through US regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion handle recorded in 2025. These figures refer to the amount wagered, not sportsbook revenue.
Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.
Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.
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One concern is the measure might force clubs to host matches outside the city to maintain their advertising agreements.
Stakeholders have yet to determine their response to the bills, with educational campaigns and collective actions on the agenda. Coordination with political leaders in the city of São Paulo is also under way.
Reinaldo Carneiro Bastos, president of the São Paulo Football Federation, expressed concern about the bill, saying: “If the city’s clubs lose this revenue, it will create a disparity that extends to the pitch.”