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The 2026 NFL season arguably marks the most contentious battle to attract customers interested in sports betting and predictions, dating back to the historic PASPA decision. For the first full NFL season, traditional sportsbooks such as DraftKings will offer sports-event contracts in the three most populous US states – California, Texas and Florida.
Unlike regulated sportsbooks, prediction markets allow customers between the ages of 18 and 21 to trade on sports-event contracts. Craig Carton, a sports talk host with WFAN 660 AM in New York, criticised the athletes for their endorsement of Polymarket. Carton, a recovering compulsive gambler, opined that the “unregulated” gambling markets are driving Americans into bankruptcy and kids out of school. Regulated books prohibit those under 21 from betting on their platform, leading Carton to question the celebrities for promoting the company.
“At what point does someone come along where you say no to the offer?” Carton asked.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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Manchester United vs. Real Sociedad (Agg 4-0) (8pm GMT kick-off)
AC Milan vs. Red Star Belgrade (Agg 2-2) (8pm GMT kick-off)
PSV Eindhoven vs. Olympiakos (Agg 2-4) (8pm GMT kick-off)
