Shining Hot 5

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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.

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“Therefore, we have been having this debate,” he added. “I have been to Congress, the Supreme Federal Court, and the Attorney General’s office to talk about the impact of betting on the lives of Brazilians.

“We have made progress, such as increasing the direct tax to 15% and including the activity in the Selective Tax. Those benefiting from social programmes and those who joined the Desenrola programme were also prohibited from betting.”

He also pointed to the self-exclusion mechanism adopted by the government.

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These comments echo a similar sentiment emphasised at the country’s Directorate of Communications panel event on illegal betting and addiction on 10 September. Deputy Minister of Interior Ali Çelik suggested that curbing addiction would lead to a decrease in illegal betting activity. 

Çelik said: “If we can eliminate this sector, we will also minimise the funds flowing into the hands of the next criminal organisation.”  

The president of the Turkish Green Crescent Society, Associate Professor Mehmet Dinç, expanded on this point, highlighting the relationship between supply and demand in the fight against illegal betting.